Why major emitters are doing so little to cut carbon emissions

At the UN-organized global climate conference COP30, now underway in the Amazon-adjacent Brazilian city of Belém, discussions across various thematic sessions-attended by high-level government representatives, scientists, researchers, and economists-have revealed a deeply troubling picture. Data and analysis presented in these sessions show disappointing progress on carbon emission reduction and climate finance for vulnerable nations. At the same time, the role of major emitting countries in reducing emissions remains mysteriously passive. Similarly, failure to fulfill earlier commitments on climate finance continues to expose persistent delays and reluctance.

Against this backdrop, scientists, researchers, environmentalists, civil society representatives, and economists taking part in the summit have expressed profound frustration at the attitude of major carbon-emitting countries. They warn that by failing to take decisive action to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C, the world is being pushed toward a dangerously overheated future. The reluctance of wealthy, industrialized nations to provide adequate financial support for vulnerable countries is also pushing climate-affected populations toward a worsening crisis. As developed nations resist progress on these two crucial issues-emissions reduction and climate finance-the outcome of COP30 has become uncertain, casting doubt on the future of the entire COP process. In this harsh reality, climate-vulnerable countries including Bangladesh-and their people-are left with no option but to surrender helplessly to climate risks.

At COP30, scientists have warned that global fossil-fuel emissions may again reach a new record high in 2025. Some indicators suggest the world may be nearing peak emissions; others predict that global greenhouse-gas emissions might start falling within a decade. Yet according to the Global Carbon Project, fossil-fuel burning and cement production will increase emissions by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 38.1 billion tons. The Project, an international consortium of researchers, monitors global carbon emissions. Reduced deforestation and better land use could soften the rate of increase. As one physicist notes:

"By around 2030, we expect emissions to stabilize somewhat."

Global greenhouse-gas emissions today are 10% higher than at the signing of the Paris Agreement and far above the 1.5°C pathway. While emissions from major industrialized nations-historically the biggest polluters-have declined over the past two decades, emissions from many developing countries have increased as they expand their economies and meet growing energy demands. Although attention often focuses on large emerging economies like India, the United States, and China, many low- and middle-income countries are also increasing emissions due to fossil-fuel dependence.

Statistics show that nearly one-quarter of the world's population lives within 5 km of fossil-fuel projects-exposing more than two billion people and vital ecosystems to severe health and environmental risks. An Amnesty International report finds over 18,300 oil, gas, and coal facilities across 170 countries. Living near these installations increases risks of cancer, respiratory diseases, heart conditions, premature birth, and early death. Water, air, and soil pollution also intensify around such sites.

Over the last two decades, China has become responsible for one-third of global greenhouse-gas emissions, largely due to its extensive coal-fired power plants. According to the International Energy Agency, China burned 2.3 billion tons of coal last year. While China leads the world in clean-energy expansion-including electric vehicles, solar, and wind-it has pledged to reduce emissions by at least 7% by 2035 after hitting peak emissions. Some experts believe China may have already peaked in 2024, with emissions potentially declining by 1.2% this year.

Despite rising global emissions, there are encouraging signs: at least 35 countries are effectively decarbonizing, reducing emissions while growing their economies. Australia, Germany, and New Zealand have significantly reduced fossil-fuel emissions over the past decade. China's emission growth has slowed, possibly reaching zero growth by the end of the year. However, without stronger action, global temperature rise risks exceeding the Paris Agreement target.

Scientific data shows growing accuracy in estimating carbon sources and sinks-systems such as forests that absorb more carbon than they emit. Fossil-fuel emissions are projected to grow an additional 1.1% in 2025, following similar growth in 2024. Emissions from natural gas, oil, and coal are rising at 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively. China, responsible for 32% of global emissions, is increasing emissions by only 0.4%. India's emissions (8% of the global total) will grow by 1.4%, lower than previous years. However, emissions in the United States (13%) and the European Union (6%) will rise again. In the U.S., a 1.9% increase is driven by cold weather, LNG exports, rising coal use, and higher electricity demand. Land-use-related net emissions have declined due to afforestation and land restoration. Although oceans and land ecosystems absorb roughly half of human emissions, their absorption capacity is weakening due to climate change-resulting in 8 ppm more carbon accumulating in the atmosphere since 1960. Levels are now exceeding 425 ppm.

Climate finance and technology transfer remain closely intertwined with global climate-risk reduction. The Paris Agreement of 2015 was historic in uniting nearly 200 nations to reduce emissions and enhance climate support. Yet promises made-especially financial commitments to vulnerable countries-remain largely unfulfilled. Thus, COP30 has seen heated debate over climate finance, adaptation needs, and just transition. The divide between developed and developing nations shows little sign of narrowing.

In this debate, Bangladesh reaffirmed its leadership in global climate diplomacy. Led by Fisheries and Livestock Adviser Farida Akhtar, the Bangladesh delegation highlighted the country's commitment to just and inclusive climate action. At a seminar titled "Heat Stress in Dhaka: Climate Resilience Solutions" at the Bangladesh Pavilion, she emphasized Bangladesh's position on loss and damage, adaptation, and climate finance. She called for tripling adaptation finance and prioritizing an effective financing mechanism for loss and damage. Although COP29 proposed mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually from 2025 for developing countries, this was not fulfilled. A target of $300 billion by 2035 was set, but without a clear roadmap and transparent reporting system at COP30, this too may fall short.

Similarly, the African Group and the LMDC (Like-Minded Developing Countries) demanded clear, measurable commitments from wealthy nations, noting that existing pledges are insufficient and largely unmet. Latin American nations stressed that climate cooperation is a legal obligation, not a matter of goodwill, and called for stronger financial support for vulnerable communities and gender-inclusive, locally led adaptation. African and Arab states expressed frustration over the wide adaptation-finance gap. Meanwhile, the European Union and Switzerland demanded stronger transparency and financial safeguards before increasing their contributions.

Developed nations such as the EU, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand insisted that phasing out fossil fuels is the only viable path to a sustainable future. They emphasized accelerating renewable energy, clean-energy adoption, and the socio-economic benefits of a fossil-free world. Yet many developing countries remain far behind. Bangladesh emphasized that adaptation remains a critical element for climate-vulnerable nations-but adaptation finance accounts for only one-third of global climate finance. This must rise to at least 50%. The loss-and-damage fund must become operational without delay so that especially LDCs can access predictable, direct financing.

If world leaders fail to agree on fossil-fuel reduction and adequate climate finance, COP30 will fail to show humanity a path to survival.