The Indo-Pacific doctrine: Bangladesh's strategic choices

Bangladesh today stands at a strategic crossroads. Positioned at the hinge of the Bay of Bengal, the nation is no longer a passive observer in the Indo-Pacific-it is an active participant whose choices will shape both regional balance and national destiny. From the opening chapter of this series, Indo-Pacific: Bengal's Balancing Act, one truth has remained constant: geography is an advantage, but leadership must be earned.

 

The Indo-Pacific is now the primary arena of global power. Trade corridors, digital flows, maritime lifelines, and climate challenges all converge here. For Bangladesh, the question is not whether to engage, but how to engage-on its own terms, with credibility and resilience.

 

By 2026, Bangladesh's graduation from LDC status will end many trade privileges, demanding urgent diversification. The garment industry alone cannot sustain growth. New agreements with ASEAN, Japan, Australia, and select African partners must be secured. Electronics, pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, and IT-enabled services should become the new pillars of a resilient economy. Logistics reform-digitised customs, modernised ports, and seamless last-mile connectivity-will determine whether Bangladesh competes or falls behind.

 

At the same time, Dhaka must rethink its broader development strategy. Remittances remain important, but they cannot substitute for an export base capable of absorbing millions of young workers. The global economy is shifting towards supply chain resilience, green manufacturing, and digital services. Bangladesh must capture these transitions or risk being bypassed. Success will require not only new policies but also reforms in governance, transparency, and long-term planning.

The Bay of Bengal is more than geography; it is Bangladesh's lifeline. Without secure seas, trade, energy supplies, and submarine cables remain exposed. An integrated coastal surveillance system, readiness-driven naval modernisation under Forces Goal 2030, and cable redundancy with rapid-repair capacity are non-negotiable. Economic confidence begins at sea.

In an era of growing naval competition, Dhaka must also invest in strategic partnerships that enhance maritime domain awareness without compromising sovereignty. Participation in joint patrols, search-and-rescue drills, and multilateral exercises with friendly navies can strengthen security while keeping Bangladesh's non-aligned posture intact. Regional trust will be built not only by hardware, but also by Bangladesh's ability to act as a reliable partner in ensuring safe seas.

Bangladesh's climate vulnerability is undeniable-but it can be reframed as leverage. By spearheading a Bay of Bengal Climate Adaptation Compact, investing in regional renewable grids, and pioneering disaster insurance for fisheries and ports, Dhaka can transform fragility into influence. Climate leadership is not merely moral; it is strategic.

Bangladesh has already earned global recognition through its Climate Prosperity Plan and the hosting of the Climate Vulnerable Forum. The next step is to translate this advocacy into binding regional mechanisms. A joint adaptation fund, shared early-warning systems, and climate-smart infrastructure could make the Bay of Bengal a model for collective resilience. In doing so, Dhaka can position itself as the moral and strategic leader of small states facing existential threats.

In the 21st century, data flows are as critical as shipping lanes. Bangladesh must establish itself as a trusted digital hub. Achieving 5G readiness, expanding secure cloud infrastructure, and aligning with global cybersecurity standards will enable the country to market itself as a "trusted data corridor" by 2028. Digital trust will be the passport to investment and strategic relevance.

Yet digital ambition also requires strong governance. Cybersecurity breaches, data misuse, or regulatory weaknesses could erode trust instantly. Bangladesh's challenge will be to prove that its digital ecosystem is both competitive and safe. Partnerships with global technology leaders, regional digital compacts, and investment in human capital are as vital as infrastructure itself. Digital trust, once secured, can become one of Dhaka's most valuable exports.

 

Principles and policies mean little without disciplined implementation. An inter-ministerial Indo-Pacific Task Force, supported by quarterly scorecards, can ensure coherence and accountability. At the same time, Dhaka must project its achievements globally-through think tanks, universities, and media-to shape international perception. In the Indo-Pacific, perception generates influence.

 

Delivery will determine whether Bangladesh is seen as a state of promise or performance. Past experience shows that ambitious declarations often falter due to bureaucratic inertia and weak coordination. Overcoming this will require not just political will but institutional discipline. Policy must be matched by execution, monitored by metrics, and communicated with credibility. Only then can Dhaka convert plans into influence.

 

The priorities ahead are clear. Bangladesh must secure at least two new trade agreements before LDC graduation. It must fully integrate coastal surveillance and expand search-and-rescue coverage. A regional climate adaptation fund must be launched with littoral partners. Bangladesh must also certify itself as a trusted digital hub by 2028. These are not aspirations-they are imperatives.

 

This five-part series began with the metaphor of balance. It now ends with a call for leadership. Bangladesh has the geography, the economic dynamism, and the diplomatic tradition to succeed-but geography alone will not determine destiny. The Indo-Pacific will not reward hesitation; it will reward delivery. For Bangladesh, the choice is stark: remain a cautious observer, or emerge as a confident shaper of regional order.

 

Leadership will not be gifted by great powers nor granted by geography. It must be earned through discipline, delivery, and vision. If Dhaka aligns domestic progress with external commitments, safeguards its seas and data, and leads on climate resilience, it will not merely adapt to the Indo-Pacific-it will define it.

 

Bangladesh now faces history with a rare opportunity: to transform from a state defined by vulnerability into one recognised for resilience and influence. The world will measure us not by what we proclaim, but by what we execute. And when future historians write of this decade, one question will endure: Did Bangladesh own the future-or let the future own Bangladesh?

 

The writer is a specialist in South Asian affairs, serves as a geopolitical analyst and columnist