Gen Z: The wild card in the next general election

The Gen Zs led the monsoon revolution of Bangladesh in July 2024. Born between 1997-2010, this generation grew up in a world where information spreads at lightning speed, where people are increasingly public about their life and world views, where the issues of inclusion, diversity, mental health, work-life balance takes centre stage.

 

 

While the Gen X, who are now aged between 45-60 are shouldering the responsibilities of corporate and political leadership and the Millennials, aged between 28-45 are lining up to take the charge from the Gen X, the Gen Z’s might just have emerged as the joker in the deck of cards. If we are reading the signs right, the Gen Zs might be the deciding factor, the wild card, in the next parliamentary election.

Gen Zs make up the biggest vote bank; yet most of them remain undecided voters.                                                                          

As per Bangladesh Population Census 2022 estimates, Gen Zs make up approximately 33.91% of the voting age population in Bangladesh. They are the single largest vote bank and we do not know the voting preferences of most of them.

The People’s Election Pulse Survey round 2 of Innovision Consulting shows that 43.8% of the samples taken from the university students have not decided which party they will vote for.

 

 

Generally, among the Gen Zs, 36.3% are yet to decide. In contrast, the share of undecided voters is 30.8% among the Millennials and 29.4% among the Gen X. The biggest known unknown that we have is that the Gen Zs are undecided and one must ask why.

 

 

The Innovision survey indicates that most of these undecided voters want to know about the candidate or are waiting to assess the political development before the election to make their voting decision. That takes us to the next issue.

 

 

Unhappy with the state of affairs

In Innovision’s September survey, 20.3% of the samples from university students stated that the election should not be held in February 2026 while only 8.4% of the household respondents reported the same.

Among the age groups, 11.0% of the Gen Zs reported that they do not want the election at said time; in contrast 8.3% of the Gen X reported the same. While 42.9% of the Gen Zs rated the interim government’s (IG) performance as good, 34.7% of the Gen Zs reported the same.

 

 

The rating is even poorer with samples from university students; only 23.8% of the university students rated the IG’s performance as good. Compared to other age groups, more Gen Zs think that the law-and-order situation has worsened; 62.3% of the Gen Zs reported that the extortion increased in the last six months while 51.1% of the Gen X reported the same.

 

 

Also, 24.1% of the respondents that are sampled from the universities have expressed concern about voter safety while 11.7% of the household samples expressed the same concern. 17.5% of the Gen Zs think there is a high chance of violence between political parties during elections while 11.3% of the Gen X expressed similar concern.

 

 

The Gen Zs are more pro-reform

Respondents who have become first time voters since 2014 are more aware of reform agenda like PR Upper House if compared to respondents who became voters before 2014. Among respondents who became voters after 2014, 48.8% are aware of the PR Upper House. In contrast, 41% of those who became voters between 2001-2014 are aware of the PR Upper House.

The Innovision survey also shows that voter segments that are more aware of PR Upper House are also more in favour of it. Among the respondents who became voters after 2014, 26.9% want PR Upper House while 19.4% of those who became voters between 2001 to 2014 are in favour of PR Upper House.

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The role of social media

In the Innovision survey, of the student samples from the universities, 63.6% identified social media as their source of information on the extent of extortion. In contrast, 38.5% of the respondents from the households identified social media as their source of information. Among the age groups, 55.9% of the Gen Zs identified social media as their source of information on the extent of extortion; in contrast, 38.9% of the millennials, 27.4% of the Gen X, and 15.7% of the Boomers identified social media as their source of information on extortion. It is clear that social media shapes up the voice of the Gen Zs more if compared to other age groups.

 

 

The Gen Z’s vote share matters for all parties

The Gen Zs make up 37.2% of the votes of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami but 28.6% of the votes of BNP. In contrast, Gen X makes up 18.9% of the votes of Bangladesh Jamat-e-Islami but 24.5% of the votes of BNP. Of the NCP votes in the Innovision poll, 57% have come from the Gen Zs.

 

 

The position taken by the Gen Zs before the election can change the electoral performance of the parties especially given the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system.

 

 

As we approach a historic election, the interim government and the political parties must take these findings seriously. For the interim government, a historic turn out of Gen Zs and the first-time voters will be crucial for an inclusive and representative election. For the political parties, securing the Gen Z votes will be paramount to not only winning the next election, but also to securing and sustaining their political future.

Md Rubaiyath Sarwar is managing director, Innovision Consulting.